A coup with the Kremlin's "paw marks all over it"

Don't think for a moment that the overthrow of Kyrgyzstan's President Bakiyev is a matter of purely local interest, said Asher Pirt and Carl Thomson on The Russian Week. It may be one of the poorest nations on earth, but this remote central Asian state is of key geopolitical importance. Near the capital, Bishkek, lies the Manas air base, leased by the Americans, who use it as a supply hub for the war in Afghanistan, a platform for Nato troops and an ideal spot from which to eavesdrop on Russia's southern flank and China's western
border. To Moscow's alarm, Kyrgyz-


sran is also used by Islamic militants as a transit route from Afghanistan to Uzbekistan (a centre of Islamic radicalism), and into Chechnya and other Russian enclaves. Whatever happens in Kyrgyzstan is thus a matter of urgent international concern.
When Bakiyev came to power in the "Tulip Revolution" five years ago, replacing a corrupt and authoritarian regime, things seemed to be looking up for Kyrgyzstan, said Erhard Stoking in die tageszeitung (Berlin). He was seen as pro-America and pro- democracy. Alas, in no time the dynamic new leader and his cronies were busy helping themselves to state funds; soon 80% of the economy was in their hands. Anyone rash enough to protest was jailed by compliant courts or even murdered. But this month it was Bakiyev's turn to face the wrath of the populace, for whom a sharp hike in electricity, water and mobile-phone charges had proved the last straw. Security forces killed 84 people, but were unable to stop the protesters from taking over government offices. Bakiyev is now holed up in Belarus, leaving the opposition in charge of a shaky interim government. "Neither Russia, nor your humble servant, have any links whatsoever to these events," declared Vladimir Putin after the coup. But his words were "pure pantomime", said Paul


McGcough in The Sydney Morning Herald; this had the Kremlin's paw marks all over it. Livid at the way Bakiyev had reneged on a deal to deny the Manas air base to the US, Russia provoked the price rises by axing the big subsidies it had provided on its petrol exports and by allowing rumours to spread that Moscow might expel the millions of Kyrgyz workers in Russia whose remittances account for a third of their country's GNR Meanwhile, Russian state TV had been beaming in documentaries portraying Bakiyev as "a repugnant dictator". Once the protest started, Putin is


thought to have persuaded the Kyrgyz military to stand aside, and then quickly recognised the new regime. Its acting president, Roza Otunbayeva, a respected former foreign minister, immediately thanked him for doing so.
America, by contrast, continued to recognise Bakiyev days after his overthrow, said M.K. Bhadrakumar in Asia Times (Hong Kong). That may prove a serious misjudgement. All of a sudden it's the US that seems to be backing a discredited authoritarian regime, and Russia which is on the side of the people. As Otunbayeva told The Washington Post in a blunt critique of the USA: "You came to us to help us build democracy, and then just one day, you put your hands over your mouth just to have an air base." It's now even possible that the US could lose its lease on that air base. Possible but unlikely, said Brian Downing, also in Asia Times. Fearful of Islamic terror spreading out across its southern borders, Russia has no wish to obstruct the fight against the Taliban. More likely, it will use its new hold over Kyrgyzstan to demand a halt to further Nato expansion elsewhere. This has been a good coup for Moscow: it has shown the West that it is an important partner in central Asia. But one suspects it won't want to push things too far.